Scientists predict coastline could change significantly by 2100
by  SCOTT SHANLEY
Posted: 2007-05-03

Atlantic Highlands prepares for global warming impact

Atlantic Highlands residents should enjoy the town's coastline while they can - it may not be the same by the turn of the century.

According to scientists and environmental experts of the area, the town may experience the effects of global warming much sooner than originally expected. If predictions of climate change and sea level rise are indeed accurate, the water level of the bay would increase by approximately three feet. Further, flood levels would more than likely reach an additional seven feet if a storm surge equivalent to that of 2006's hurricane Ernesto were to hit any area of the Bayshore.

Atlantic Highlands Environmental Commission Chairman Paul Boyd described the future coastline as being very detrimental to the town. According to him, the town would be bisected from north to south by a long arc of floodwaters. Flooding could extend as far as 10 blocks inland, reaching Jackson Bridge on First Avenue behind the Foodtown shopping center.

Many Mind Creek would greatly overflow, potentially putting many parts of the town underwater including all of Avenue A, and sections of Center Avenue, Highland Avenue, and approximately half of Fireman's Field. Land in the town's marina would be almost entirely underwater in addition to its beach, dunes, and wetlands.

Boyd said global warming is an extremely important environmental issue that should no longer be ignored by residents. “This is a very important matter,” he said. “Up to now there has been plenty of controversy and doubt. The doubt should be over by now.”

Boyd added residents can currently see effects beginning to take place. “People already see this with recent flooding,” he said, noting occasional overflows on West Highland Avenue.

Bayshore Regional Watershed Council Co-Chairman Joseph Reynolds said he agrees with many of the recent predictions. According to him, global warming concerns should not be limited to just Atlantic Highlands residents. “I think anyone in a low-lying area will be impacted,” he said, stating most areas of the Bayshore will be significantly impacted as well.

Reynolds said storm surges and flooding are the two aspects residents should be most concerned about. “We take this very seriously,” he said. “A lot people around here live right next to water.”

Both Reynolds and Boyd agreed it is important to inform and prepare residents for potential changes to the borough's coastline. “We know this is happening whether it be human or natural causes,” Reynolds said. “We have to learn to live in a warmer world with more water and a different environment.”

Reynolds said preventive measures can be taken, but he is unsure of how successful they will prove to be ultimately. “We don't know if we can do anything to stop this,” he said. “But we should prepare ourselves for the potential of more flooding in these areas. This is where we need to put our efforts now.”

Should I sell my shore house?

Dr. Kenneth Miller, chairman of the Geological Sciences Department at Rutgers University, has extensively studied both local climate changes and sea level rises. He speaks often on the topic of global warming, frequently giving in-depth presentation on the issue.

Miller said the infamous Jersey Shore as we know it, may very well disappear within 100 years. “This whole region is subsiding,” he said. “If somebody tells you global warming is not occurring, it is not true. It's not up for discussion.”

What is up for discussion, however, is what causes global warming, Miller said. He noted thermal expansion as well as oceans gaining heat as the most prominent causes. According to him, warming oceans are expanding at a rate of 1.6 millimeters per year. “We're looking at a pretty good rate of expansion here,” he said. “New Jersey will definitely lose marshes and beaches.”

Miller believes the state will see a minimum sea level increase between two to three feet by the turn of the century. Global sea level growth sees an annual increase of two to three millimeters per year. While it may not seem like a large number, Miller still encourages owners of summer homes to become aware of global warming issues.

“I wouldn't rush out and sell my shore house today,” he said, “but I would be worried.” Miller agrees that storm surges and flooding can indeed pose an immediate threat to many homeowners. “Last year, an increasing number of hurricanes hit New Jersey,” he said. “Many believe this is due to global warming. There is certainly credible evidence that the intensity of hurricanes contribute to global warming.”

Miller said the actions that are taken against global warming pose a significant social and economic issue. “We are losing a great deal of real estate here,” he said. “What's done about it is our only defense.”

For more information visit www.bayshorewatershed.org.

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