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Garden State could turn into the Peach State
Thursday, July 12, 2007
BY DEBORAH HOWLETT
Star-Ledger Staff

Left unchecked, global warming will transform New Jersey's temperate weather into a hot and humid climate similar to Georgia, according to a report released yesterday.

Written by a group of academicians forecasting the cumulative effect of climate change on the northeastern United States, the report warns if something isn't done immediately, New Jersey will be trading its traditional cranberry bogs for peach trees.

Some of the solutions offered for reducing the effects of global warming are as simple as driving less and replacing standard light bulbs with compact fluorescent versions. The report also calls for more regulation of industry and increasing the availability of solar and wind power.

After several authors of the report briefed Gov. Jon Corzine at the Statehouse, they joined him in a news conference and praised New Jersey for leading the way.

"New Jersey has planted the flag on the most innovative set of goals in the Northeast," said William Moomaw, co-leader of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment team and director of the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University.

Last week, Corzine signed landmark legislation that among other things requires a 20 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in New Jersey by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. Corzine signed the bill with environmental activist and former Vice President Al Gore at his side, just ahead of last weekend's Live Earth concert in the Meadowlands.

The report was the result of a two-year effort by more than 50 scientists and economists, in conjunction with the Union of Concerned Scientists, to predict what could happen to the climate in the nine states of the Northeast if nothing is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

It said the entire Northeast ski industry would likely go out of business except in western Maine. Spruce and hemlock forests -- as well as song birds such as the Baltimore oriole -- would all but disappear from New Jersey to the Canada border.

The report said apple orchards in the Northeast would likely wither, and dairy farmers would have great difficulty protecting cows against the rising heat. Lobstermen south of Maine and cod fishermen plying the Georges Bank would lose their livelihoods.

Because of the rising temperatures, the Northeast would be susceptible to longer and more severe droughts due to the increased evaporation of rainfall.

The report pointed out that since 1970, average daily air temperatures in New Jersey have increased by 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Without any reduction or conservation, the temperatures could increase by 6.5 to 12.5 degrees by the end of the century, the report said.

Such an increase would have social and economic disastrous effects, the report said. One effect on agriculture, for instance, would be that the rising temperatures would shorten winter cold snaps. By the end of the century, the winter might not be cold enough long enough to replenish cranberry bogs in the Pinelands. New Jersey is the third largest grower of cranberries in the country.

"Climate change poses a clear and present danger," Corzine told reporters. "We've got a real problem."

The state Department of Environmental Protection is writing rules to achieve the emissions reductions called for in the new legislation. Only two other states have enacted laws to force such reductions.

Asked what difference New Jersey can make if other states in the region don't follow suit, Corzine said, "One state can raise hell."

But he said action by the federal government could have the greatest impact.

"We are doing a lot in New Jersey. We're doing a lot here and we can do a lot more," Corzine said. "We have a tremendous role to play but we fundamentally need change in Washington."

The report said some of the climate changes are already inevitable because greenhouse gases emitted today stay in the atmosphere for decades. Nonetheless, the report says that a low-emission alternative -- featuring much improved fuel efficiencies and a transition to alternative and renewable energy resources -- is achievable and would leave the Northeast with a climate similar to today.


The Washington Post contributed to this report. Deborah Howlett may be reached at dhowlett@starledger.com or (609) 989-0273.

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